Change in annual temperature from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100

Sources: Norwegian Meteorological Institute and Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, 2008

Mean temperature can increase by 2.5-3.5°C

• The annual mean temperature could increase by as much as 2.5-3.5°C. The most significant increase will occur in Northern Norway and be greater inland than on the coast. As can be seen from the map, the increase in temperature will be most significant in Finnmark, the northernmost county of Norway.
• In winter, the minimum temperature for nights will increase by 3.5-4°C in the far north and 2.5-3.5°C in the rest of the country. The number of days with mild weather with a minimum temperature above 0°C in winter will increase throughout lowland Norway.
• In summer, the maximum day time temperature will rise by up to 3°C in the south east and approximately 2°C in other parts of the country. The number of summer days with a maximum temperature of 20°C will increase, particularly in the south.

Higher tree line

Large parts of the mountains will devlop forest cover in the long run, and it may be possible to grow grains and other plants demanding a warm summer further north. The agricultural sector must however also prepare for more plant diseases and insect pests, while at the same time traditional primary sectors such as reindeer husbandry will be threatened. On Svalbard, the permafrost may become more unstable, potentially resulting in damage to buildings and infrastructure.

Uncertain modelling factors

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the regional impacts of climate change. Both nationally and internationally there is much focus on the issue, and researchers are working to gradually develop more reliable scenarios. For Norway, the uncertainty especially concerns the coastal areas north of the country. In addition, it is difficult to estimate how low winter temperatures will be in the inland, due to Norway’s varied geography.