Global climate

Significant changes have occurred in the climate over the past hundred years. Records show that the global mean temperature rose by approximately 0.74 °C during the 20th century. 10 of the last 13 years are among the 12 warmest years recorded since measurements commenced in 1860.

The above graph shows that the mean temperature varies from year to year. 2005 was the warmest year with 0.62°C above average, and then the temperature fell slightly. In 2008 the mean temperature was 0.48°C above average, while 2009 was warmer, with 0.56°C above average. Weather phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña and changes in the sun's radiation intensity are assumed to be considerable causes of these variations.  

If we look at the mean temperature over many years, we can draw more robust conclusions: The 2000s (2000-2009) were warmer than the nineties, which in turn were warmer than the eighties.

Global warming caused by human activity

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded in its last report that we now have new and stronger scientific evidence that global warming during the last 50 years is mainly caused by human activity. It is more than 90 per cent likely that most of the changes we have seen in climate in the last 50 years are human-induced.

The concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, methane and N2O have risen considerably as a result of human activity since 1750, and clearly exceed preindustrial values. This has increased the atmosphere’s greenhouse effect, and is considered to be the main cause of global warming.  The global increase in CO2 is attributed mainly to the use of fossil fuels and deforestation. The rise in methane and N2O is mainly the result of emissions from agriculture.

The majority of the IPCC's scenarios assume continued growth in CO2 emissions for most of the 21st century. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will thus continue to rise. The effects of this are calculated to be an increase of 1.1 - 6.4°C from 1990 to 2100 in the world's mean temperature and a global rise in the sea level by 18-59 cm.

Global warming is one of those environmental issues that are most intimately linked to socio-economic development. This is true in developing and industrialised countries alike. Our impact on the environment depends on a range of factors: the world population, per capita consumption of energy and goods, the type of goods and services preferred by consumers, and how goods are produced, transported, and used.

9 billion people in 2050

The world's population has more than doubled since 1950 and is presently increasing by more than 80 million people a year. Today's close to 7 billion population is forecasted to grow to 9 billion in 2050 before the growth flattens off. The growth spots are very unevenly distributed, with 95 per cent of expected growth in developing countries.

Changes in consumption patterns are imperative

If the whole world were to adopt the consumer habits of the industrialized nations the long-term result would be far from sustainable. So changes in production and consumption patterns are imperative, especially in industrialized countries.

In our part of the world consumption is growing steadily and fairly rapidly, despite low population growth. Our basic needs such as food, clothing and shelter have long been met, and we now demand higher quality and more refined products. New needs are being created all the time. Fundamental changes in consumption patterns have occurred in the industrialized countries as incomes and total consumption have risen. Some services, especially transport, are growing even faster than total consumption.

Economic growth means environmental impact

As the globalization of the world economy continues, world trade will grow and with it transport volumes. Economists argue that liberalization of trade means more efficient utilization of resources, which will expand the world's total production of goods and services, thus building a basis for better welfare throughout the global community.

But liberalization also means more transport, faster depletion of resources, heavier impacts on biodiversity, and added emissions of pollutants. If liberalization is to have a net positive effect on the state of the environment, there is no alternative but to adopt powerful environmental protection policies at the global and national level.